northwest A rebuttal to the claims by Phil Watson:poor old Inhere shot down again-too easy
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australian electronic gold prospecting forum.com  |  Off topic  |  Off topic  |  Climate change  |  Topic: A rebuttal to the claims by Phil Watson:poor old Inhere shot down again-too easy 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
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Author Topic: A rebuttal to the claims by Phil Watson:poor old Inhere shot down again-too easy  (Read 64 times)
Doug
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« on: Saturday December 31 2016 09:20:24 AEDT AM »

A rebuttal to the claims by Phil Watson
RESPONSE FROM DR JOHN HUNTER - 28/7/11
The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, which is based at the University of Tasmania
1. Do you agree with the premise of The Australian's article, which is that analysis of tidal gauges in Australia, as demonstrated in research published by Phil Watson, shows that sea-levels were rising at a decelerating rate in Australia between 1940 and 2000, and that the research paper calls into question the projected rise in sea-levels attributed to climate change?
No - I do not agree that "sea-levels were rising at a decelerating rate in Australia between 1940 and 2000", primarily because the "rate of acceleration or deceleration" is rather poorly defined over any specific time period (it depends very much how you analyse the data – see tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/22/how-not-to-analyze-tide-gauge-data/#more-3987).
There are a some important issues here:
(a) Observations from single tide gauges show considerable variability in time (as evidenced by Watson's plots, even though they have been smoothed with a 20-year running average). It is generally acknowledged that in order to derive a meaningful TREND (let alone an ACCELERATION (or change in trend), one needs 50 to 80 years of record - so, while Watson has enough data to estimate the trend, the validity of any estimated acceleration is open to question.
(b) The concepts of "acceleration" and "deceleration" depend very much on the period of time involved. For example, if one goes back in time and includes data from the late 19th century, an ACCELERATION is evident (see   
and    (bottom graph) for information on global-average sea-level rise) - starting the record in 1930 or 1940 means that any acceleration will be small or even negative. Also, if you only looked at Watson's data from 1970, you would get a strong ACCELERATION.!!!
  
How Not to Analyze Tide Gauge Data
Posted on July 22, 2011 | 110 Comments
There’s another paper about sea level rise in the Journal of Coastal Research by P. J. Watson (2011, Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia?, Journal of Coastal Research, 27, 368–377). According to this powerpoint, Watson is genuinely concerned about sea level rise due to global warming and argues forcefully for addressing the issue. His primary interest seems to be: to help those responsible for protecting Australia’s coastline be as well prepared as possible for the impending sea level rise. That’s a noble motive, and I wish him success. But in spite of the best of intentions, I can’t put much stock in Watson’s published results because it’s clear that he is no data analyst.
  
link-https://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/22/how-not-to-analyze-tide-gauge-data/
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