northwest Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous:Anthropogenic Global Warming Is True
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« on: Monday November 21 2016 13:24:21 AEDT PM »

Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous:Anthropogenic Global Warming Is True
James Lawrence Powell1
The extent of the consensus among scientists on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) has the potential to influence public opinion and the attitude of political leaders and thus matters greatly to society. The history of science demonstrates that if we wish to judge the level of a scientific consensus and whether the consensus position is likely to be correct, the only reliable source is the peer-reviewed literature. During 2013 and 2014, only 4 of 69,406 authors of peer-reviewed articles on global warming, 0.0058% or 1 in 17,352, rejected AGW. Thus, the consensus on AGW among publishing scientists is above 99.99%, verging on unanimity. The U.S. House of Representatives holds 40 times as many global warming rejecters as are found among the authors of scientific articles. The peer-reviewed literature contains no convincing evidence against AGW.
Results and Conclusions
My search found 24,210 articles by 69,406 authors. In my judgment, only five articles rejected AGW: Avakyan (2013a, 2013b), Gervais (2014), Happer (2014), and Hug (2013). These represent a proportion of 1 article in 4,842 or 0.021%. With regard to the authors, 4 reject AGW: 1 in 17,352 or 0.0058%. As explained, I interpret this to mean that 99.99% of publishing scientists accept AGW: virtual unanimity. Of course, what matters is not only how many articles reject AGW but also the quality of the evidence presented and the influence of those articles on science. The latter we can judge from the number of citations. As of January 2016, excluding self-citations, the five rejecting articles have been cited a total of once. The only possible conclusion is that there is no convincing evidence against AGW.
In the three historical examples with which I began— continental drift, meteorite impact, and global warming—decades passed without evidence sufficient to cause scientists to spurn their long-held beliefs. In contrast, today a massive amount of peer-reviewed evidence, thousands of articles written by tens of thousands of authors, supports AGW and there is no persuasive evidence against it. If such evidence existed, we would already know about it and not have to conduct a needle-in-the-haystack search in a vain attempt to find it. Science can speak no more clearly: AGW is true. To further delay action to prevent global warming is to force science to bow to ideology and politics. Hitler, Mao, and Stalin all tried that, with results fatal for tens of millions. No one has summed up humanity’s predicament better than Elizabeth Kolbert (2007): “It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing” (p. 189).
doug smile

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