northwest Scientist Slams Daily Caller For Distorting His Research
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Global temperature goes from heat record to heat record, yet the sun is at its dimmest for half a century.
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Doug
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« on: Saturday November 26 2016 22:30:05 AEDT PM »

Scientist Slams Daily Caller For Distorting His Research To Suggest Climate Change Is Fake
“Last week, a new, *peer-reviewed paper from scientists at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute was published in the journal Nature Geoscience. The paper is important: for the first time, it shows that scientists can use incredibly old permafrost to find out what temperatures were like in Siberia thousands of years ago. By using this permafrost, the scientists found that temperatures in Siberia have been gradually rising for the past 7,000 years.
Enter the climate denier media. After the findings were published, notorious climate denier Anthony Watts re-published portions of the Alfred Wegener Institute’s press release for the research on his site, Watts Up With That. It was then picked up by Michael Bastasch at the Daily Caller, who wrote that “solar radiation has been melting Siberian ice for 7,000 years,” evidence that “global warming is nothing new.
Here’s the problem. The research does not say any of that. It does not show that Siberian ice is “melting,” and certainly does not show that “solar radiation” is the cause.
--------How do we know this? ThinkProgress asked one of the study’s authors, Dr. Thomas Laepple, to explain the significance of his findings. Of the Caller’s article, Laepple said that while the wording looked “very close” to his press release, “subtle changes were made” to make it seem like “the climate always warmed and therefore the human impact would not be important.”
This is certainly not reflected in our published work,” Laepple said..
Laepple also pointed out that there’s a difference between gradual warming of the Siberian Arctic for the last 7,000 years and the more rapid warming of the entire earth for the last 200 years.
Because of that, Laepple said the Caller’s claim that “global warming is nothing new” was “misleading,” as it attempts to equate a global phenomenon with a seasonal, regional, long-term trend. In reality, he said, man-made greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming “in all seasons at a pace that is faster than anything we experienced during the last millennia.”
--------The Caller’s claim that the sun “plays a large role” in climate change is “misleading, as it suggests that the sun has a stronger influence on the climate than previously thought by the climate research community.”
  
link-https://thinkprogress.org/scientist-slams-daily-caller-for-distorting-his-research-to-suggest-climate-change-is-fake-a9240a9e38e2#.jpcx161o7

*Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene
Nature Geoscience 8, 122–125 (2015)
Note the last sentence in a paper abstract.
“Furthermore, our reconstructed trend as well as the recent maximum are consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing and climate model simulations, thus reconciling differing estimates of Arctic and northern high-latitude temperature evolution during the Holocene.”
  
doug smile
Edited:Saturday November 26 2016 22:41:03 AEDT PM
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« Reply #1 on: Saturday November 26 2016 22:52:30 AEDT PM »

  
Scientist Slams Daily Caller For Distorting His Research To Suggest Climate Change Is Fake
“Last week, a new, *peer-reviewed paper from scientists at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute was published in the journal Nature Geoscience. The paper is important: for the first time, it shows that scientists can use incredibly old permafrost to find out what temperatures were like in Siberia thousands of years ago. By using this permafrost, the scientists found that temperatures in Siberia have been gradually rising for the past 7,000 years.
Enter the climate denier media. After the findings were published, notorious climate denier Anthony Watts re-published portions of the Alfred Wegener Institute’s press release for the research on his site, Watts Up With That. It was then picked up by Michael Bastasch at the Daily Caller, who wrote that “solar radiation has been melting Siberian ice for 7,000 years,” evidence that “global warming is nothing new.
Here’s the problem. The research does not say any of that. It does not show that Siberian ice is “melting,” and certainly does not show that “solar radiation” is the cause.
--------How do we know this? ThinkProgress asked one of the study’s authors, Dr. Thomas Laepple, to explain the significance of his findings. Of the Caller’s article, Laepple said that while the wording looked “very close” to his press release, “subtle changes were made” to make it seem like “the climate always warmed and therefore the human impact would not be important.”
This is certainly not reflected in our published work,” Laepple said..
Laepple also pointed out that there’s a difference between gradual warming of the Siberian Arctic for the last 7,000 years and the more rapid warming of the entire earth for the last 200 years.
Because of that, Laepple said the Caller’s claim that “global warming is nothing new” was “misleading,” as it attempts to equate a global phenomenon with a seasonal, regional, long-term trend. In reality, he said, man-made greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming “in all seasons at a pace that is faster than anything we experienced during the last millennia.”
--------The Caller’s claim that the sun “plays a large role” in climate change is “misleading, as it suggests that the sun has a stronger influence on the climate than previously thought by the climate research community.”
  
link-https://thinkprogress.org/scientist-slams-daily-caller-for-distorting-his-research-to-suggest-climate-change-is-fake-a9240a9e38e2#.jpcx161o7

*Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene
Nature Geoscience 8, 122–125 (2015)
Note the last sentence in a paper abstract.
“Furthermore, our reconstructed trend as well as the recent maximum are consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing and climate model simulations, thus reconciling differing estimates of Arctic and northern high-latitude temperature evolution during the Holocene.”
  
doug smile
Edited:Saturday November 26 2016 22:41:03 AEDT PM


Here is an excerpt of the pre publication press release by one of the authors of the paper.

“Further, the new data will allow the researchers to fill an important gap: “Most climate models indicate a long-term cooling in the summer and long-term warming in the winter for the Arctic over the past 7,000 years. But until now, there has been no temperature data to support the second claim, essentially because the majority of climate archives record information from the summer. Now we can finally demonstrate that ice wedges contain similar winter-temperature information as predicted by climate models,” says AWI modeller and co-author Dr Thomas Laepple.

At this point, the researchers can’t exactly determine yet how many degrees the Arctic winters have warmed. As Thomas Opel explains, “The results of the oxygen isotope analysis can only tell us whether and how the isotopic composition has changed. If it rises, it indicates a warming. But the exact extent of warming is something we can’t yet make a statement on.”

Nevertheless, the researchers found clear indications for the causes of this warming. According to Hanno Meyer: “The curve shows a clear partitioning. Up to the dawn of industrialisation around 1850, we can attribute the development to changes in the Earth’s position relative to the sun. In other words, the duration and intensity of the solar radiation increased from winter to winter, causing temperatures to rise. But with industrialisation and the strong increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, this was supplemented by the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Starting at that point, our data curve shows a major increase that clearly differs from the gradual warming in the previous phase.”
  
doug smile
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All posts on this forum are the personal views of the author and should  not necessarily be  interpreted as those of Admin The QED contains NO patented or protected IP!!! No fake users on this site! This forum does not depend on  guest posting liars to survive!1/2 wit powerless to login and post! LO
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« Reply #2 on: Monday November 28 2016 13:18:58 AEDT PM »

Its much to do with rate of change of temperatures. Orbital Forcing does NOT explain what has happened in past 100 years or so in frozen regions of the nrothern hemisphere. (Ice remains ice (does no melt) until its temp rises above 0C much of northern Siberian ice remains frozen even if its average temp may be slowly rising in winter and summer. )

Variations in orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determine climatic patterns through so-called "orbital forcing" but the changes from such an influence are slow and very predicable.

"Since orbital variations are predictable, if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats, however, are necessary: that anthropogenic effects may modify or even overwhelm orbital effects; and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not well understood...

In the most prominent anthropogenic example, orbital forcing from the Milankovitch cycles has been in a cooling phase for millennia, but that cooling trend was reversed in the 20th and 21st centuries due to warming caused by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions."

 happy face

PS: Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the orbit (see Milankovitch cycles). These orbital changes alter the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at mid-latitudes. In this context, the term "forcing" is a physical process that affects the Earth's climate.

This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles. The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well with the predictions of the Milankovitch theory, and these effects can be calculated into the future.

Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. Ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step
.

 (Wiki)

  
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Views expressed are without prejudice, moderation, in the public / consumer interest & their "right to know"! He reserves his right to: think freely & speculate, make mistakes & change his mind, even play with the nutters & "fairies". Prove me wrong 0.543! Still fighting greed & injustice my way :-)
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